Marijuana stocks weekly investor roundup: Analysis of the week's most important events in the cannabis industry (April 27)

PotNetwork is pleased to bring you our Marijuana Stock Weekend from our partner publication Grizzle. Grizzle journalist and Head of Research Scott Willis covers the marijuana stock market in-depth, with over 12 years of institutional investment management experience in analyzing both debt and equity securities. He has held senior investment research roles at Credit Suisse and TD Asset Management. He’s also a Chartered Financial Analyst and has been featured on BNN Bloomberg and CBC. For more of Scott’s writing check out Grizzle - the language of new money.

Grizzle

The 17 edible products coming to Canada later this year

Bottom Line: The release of edibles should help reenergize growth in legal cannabis demand which has only a 10 percent market share of total cannabis consumed. If legal demand doesn't at least double from this year's run rate of 100,000kg we will consider the edibles rollout a disappointment. 

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Grizzle

Vaporizer company, Pax Labs raises $420 million

Bottom Line: Pax is a spinoff from Juul, the hands-down ruler of the nicotine vape pen in North America. Other U.S. MSO's and Canadian LP's are spending big to get into the vaporizer game, but Pax Labs is going to be the company to beat.

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Grizzle

German regulator bans unlicensed CBD from food

Bottom Line: German regulators are saying any CBD food product requires special licensing. This is similar to the rules passed down by the U.S. FDA. In reality, German companies will likely follow the lead of the U.S. and sell CBD food anyway, betting the government won't crack down before CBD foods eventually become fully unrestricted. Positively the Hemp industry in Europe is fighting back against this ruling.

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Grizzle

Mexico planning to legalize cannabis by October

Bottom Line: Legislators plans to introduce a legalization plan in September and have it passed before an October deadline. Mexico has 3.5x the population of Canada and could have more relaxed cannabis import laws than Colombia and other Latin American countries giving Canadian LP's a new source of demand.  

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Grizzle

BNY Mellon is first bank to custody cannabis assets

Bottom Line: BNY Mellon is holding the assets of a U.S. focused ETF, a first in the banking industry. This could open up the floodgates for other big custody banks like State Street and Northern Trust to allow more cannabis ETF's to enter the market. These new ETF's are giving U.S. investors a way to invest in a still federally illegal industry, providing more growth capital for U.S. MSOs. Source: Tom Sydow

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Grizzle

Americans can now buy US pot stocks

Bottom Line: For Americans who don't want to go through the hassle of opening a Canadian brokerage account to buy U.S. marijuana operators, the Evolve U.S. ETF is the answer. It holds all of the largest multi-state operators and is an excellent way to make money off of the growth of the U.S. marijuana industry.

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Grizzle

Marketers already trying to promise a tailored high

Bottom Line: Cannabis technology and research is still years away from being able to create a tailored strain profile so each consumer can achieve the exact kind of high they want for every situation. This hasn't stopped marketers from trying to characterize the high of each strain to differentiate products. Without clinical research, companies are doing live market research by mixing CBD,THC and terpene profiles and seeing how the high works on the consumer. 

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Grizzle

GTEC guides to profitability in 2019

Bottom Line: If GTEC Holdings can meet 2019 guidance, the company will be well positioned as a profitable, niche, ultra-premium cannabis producer. The company's early supply has been well received by the market, pointing to strong demand for the volumes to come. 

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Grizzle

Weekly marijuana stock performance 

The recent deal by Canopy Growth to eventually buy U.S. operator Acreage Holdings led to a reversal this week in the recent outperformance of U.S. cannabis stocks. U.S. stocks declined 3.6 percent while Canadian stocks were up 5.2 percent. We still expect U.S. stocks to outperform this year with better regulatory catalysts and growth prospects. MSOs are up 45 percent year to date while Canadian growers are up 57 percent, but this trend should reverse as we move through the year.

The overall marijuana index was up 1.7 percent this week, outperforming the S&P and the TSX by almost 0.5 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

Market Outlook

Grizzle

(Source: New Cannabis Ventures)

Stocks were up big in the first quarter after a terrible end to 2018. A short term selloff in April looks to be reaching an end and a modest rebound is ongoing.

We remain cautious on Canadian LP's due to distribution bottlenecks, slow legal demand growth and a government monopoly that all do not bode well for licensed producers' ability to meet or exceed lofty earnings and revenue estimates over the next 9 months. Revenue growth could disappoint expectations starting this quarter.

Longer term, with the Canadian market legalized, we expect retail and wholesale price compression from a legal oversupply by the second half of 2019. Falling cannabis prices will pressure producer stocks later in 2019. After a shakeout, the remaining stocks will be better positioned as long-term buying opportunities.

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Grizzle

United States

Canada

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