Marijuana stocks weekend investor roundup: Analysis of the week's most important events in the cannabis industry (September 28)
By Scott Willis
Sep 30, 2018
PotNetwork is pleased to bring you our Marijuana Stock Weekend from our partner publication Grizzle. Grizzle journalist and Head of Research Scott Willis covers the marijuana stock market in-depth, with over 12 years of institutional investment management experience in analyzing both debt and equity securities. He has held senior investment research roles at Credit Suisse and TD Asset Management. He’s also a Chartered Financial Analyst and has been featured on BNN Bloomberg and CBC. For more of Scott’s writing check out Grizzle - the language of new money.
Bottom Line: The next investing frenzy will be in CBD, THCs non-psychoactive cousin. Grizzle did a deep dive into the CBD market to illuminate the potential along with the three stocks best positioned to play the trend. Ignore this information at your own risk.
Bottom Line: Even though there are some questions around the company’s cost structure and declining patient numbers, nothing in the earnings report changes our view that Aurora is ready for legalization and remains one of the two best-positioned targets, along with Aphria, for a beverage giant who wants to enter the market.
Bottom Line: Ontario looks committed to fostering a free retail market in the province. If the government really wants to prevent big producers from owning more than one store, they can structure the regulations to prevent loopholes. If we assume owning a retail store is profitable, these regulations have now decreased the amount of profit a licensed producer will generate, a negative for cannabis growers.
The proposed cannabis retail store must be located on or within the site set out in the license.
The person and its affiliates, as defined by the regulations, may not between them hold more than one retail store.
Bottom Line: In the first six months of 2018, Germany imported 1,800 kg, 420 kg of which were from Canopy Growth. Tilray on the other hand likely provided less than 5 percent of cannabis oil exported to Germany according to financial filings.
Canopy makes $13.62 per gram in Germany compared to $7.20 per gram in Canada. Canada supplies 60 percent of Cannabis consumed in Germany.
Bottom Line: Aurora's first massive greenhouse, Aurora Sky, is now 50 percent over budget and six months delayed from the original construction schedule provided by the company. This news from Aurora should remind investors that it is in their best interest to build a margin of safety into production and return expectations for licensed producer stocks. This is a brand new industry, and the best operators have not yet been determined. Production and cost guidance from management should be taken as a best-case scenario.
Bottom Line: Even if a new US farm bill takes hemp off a list of controlled substances, it will still take 1-2 years for state-by-state regulations to be decided. In Washington, for example, manufacturing hemp oil, aka CBD oil, is forbidden, demonstrating there are still challenges hemp farmers have to face before they can expand at scale. US hemp acreage is exploding even in the face of strict regulations.
Global marijuana stocks took a breather this week and were down 5 percent for the week. News out of Ontario that only one store would be allowed per licensed producer likely contributed to the stock price weakness. The group as a whole is still up 70 percent since the Constellation investment in Canopy Growth was announced last month.
There is a significant M&A premium built into most of the large-cap stocks as investors expect large corporations to enter the market through licensed producer buyouts. If these deals don't occur in the next few months, stocks could retrace recent highs.
The Canopy Constellation deal gave the market some new momentum starting in August which should carry stocks higher at least through the end of the year. Until we have 3 to 6 months of data from the legal market in Canada, investor enthusiasm should continue to push cannabis stocks higher.
Once the Canadian market opens, we expect retail and wholesale price compression from a legal oversupply. Falling cannabis prices will pressure producer stocks in the second half of 2019.